UFC Font v Aldo Preview

A fantastic outing on the last UFC card has been followed up by some great nights with this week’s Rizin card and some MMA Series stuff over in Russia. Always feels great to be on a hot streak, especially when you know that a lot of those picks were based on intuition alone. This week’s card is rather fantastic, more than making up for taking a week off. Here’s what I got.

Louis Smolka (17–7 MMA, 8–7 UFC) v Vince Morales (10–5 MMA, 2–3 UFC)

We’re kicking off the card, just like the last one, with one of many pick ems. I don’t think either of these guys has a high ceiling at 135. Smolka had a nice little run down at 125 before he was released after dropping four in a row to some elite flyweights. Since returning to the UFC he’s yet to string together a consecutive result. He is coming off a win against Jose Alberto Quiñonez in his last fight.

Vince Morales has a bit of a deceptive record. He’s dropped three of his five UFC fights, but those losses came to Yadong Song, Benito Lopez (which was considered a robbery), and his only TKO loss to Chris Gutierrez. I’m taking a bit of a shot in the dark that while he’s yet to secure a great win, Smolka isn’t a great fighter. It’s going to be very competitive but I think Morales will scrape out a close decision. This is a tough one to predict.

My pick: Vince Morales via decision

Claudio Puelles (10–2 MMA, 3–1 UFC) v Chris Gruetzemacher (15–4 MMA, 3–3 UFC)

Much to my surprise, Gritz wound up beating Rafa Garcia pretty handily in his last fight. He showed a lot of heart and some pretty decent durability, surviving very well when he was hurt. His chin has been obliterated by Alexander Hernandez and his lack of a ground game has been exposed a few times as well. If you’re going to be a serious player in the UFC you should probably beat Gritz.

Puelles returned from a nearly two-year layoff beating Jordan Leavitt. While he did get handled on the ground in the first round, he survived the submission attempts from the BJJ expert and put the pace on him in the second and third leading to a convincing decision. I think he’ll do more of the same in this fight. As long as he doesn’t gas out fast I don’t imagine he has too much of an issue wrestling Gritz to a decision. This is a solid veteran test for the 25-year-old and one I see him passing.

My pick: Claudio Puelles via decision

Alonzo Menifield (11–2 MMA, 4–2 UFC) v William Knight (10–2 MMA, 2–1 UFC)

Here’s a fight that I feel there is extremely little chance we don’t get to see someone sleep. So watch that result in a slow plodding decision where both guys are too afraid to throw. Alonzo Menifield went on a vicious two-fight streak to start his UFC career showing some insane power. But once he started fighting more experienced guys he couldn’t sleep he stumbled.

But in his last two fights, he’s shown a much more well-rounded game, pulling out a submission against Fabio Cherant and showing that he is capable of going the full three rounds against the incredibly durable Ed Herman. William Knight has also shown great power, but doesn’t have quite the same record of brutal finishes as Menifield. Anything can happen and it’s not like neither guy has been knocked out before. But I’ll take Menifield out of Fortis MMA to build off of the improvements he’s made in his last two fights.

My pick: Alonzo Menifield via Knockout in Round 2

Mallory Martin (7–4 MMA, 1–2 UFC) v Cheyanne Vlismas (6–2 MMA, 1–1 UFC)

Two women, who are both fairly young, who both come from great camps, who are still looking to gain serious momentum in the UFC. Mallory Martin is one of the most frustrating fighters I’ve seen recently. She seems to have a good skill set, but her fight IQ is very lacking. All three of her UFC fights have ended in a submission, losing efforts to BJJ aces Jandiroba and Viana and a win against the pretty bad Hannah Ciffers.

Cheyanne Vlismas, formerly Buys, was repeatedly scarf-hold thrown to the mat and held down for three rounds in her debut. She rebounded by absolutely decimating Gloria de Paula in her second fight. I guess we’ll see just how solid Vlismas’ ground game has grown. Because I don’t imagine Martin won’t be shooting for the legs. I’m more inclined to side with Vlismas just based on momentum, but this fight is a pick ‘em.

My pick: Cheyanne Vlismas via decision

Jake Matthews (17–5 MMA, 10–5 UFC) v Jeremiah Wells (9–2–1 MMA, 1–0 UFC)

Renzo Gracie Philly's fighters are undefeated this year. I believe it’s around 6 fighters, but don’t quote me on that. Wells fights out of that gym looking to end their year on a high note. The former CFFC Welterweight champion has yet to lose a three-round fight. He has shown his power in his debut against Warley Alves and has shown a pretty solid ground game on the regionals.

Jake Matthes is a weird case where the guy has been in the UFC for seven years but only a single one of his victories is still in the UFC. Sure he’s shown a well-rounded game and he does fight out of City Kickboxing, but for as many wins as he’s got, what do they say? That all said, I’m siding with the CKB guy, I think this is another pick ’em but I have faith in that team to pull out another win. I can’t imagine it winds up being easy and he’ll have to avoid some serious power, but his only loss via strikes is a single ground and pound TKO.

My pick: Jake Matthews via decision

Bryan Barberena (15–8 MMA, 6–6 UFC) v Darian Weeks (5–0 MMA, 0–0 UFC)

Darian Weeks is taking this fight on like a week’s notice. He amassed a pretty sizable amateur career with a record of 15–4 and so far is undefeated in his pro career. He seems to primarily be a boxer, even having taken some pro boxing fights, but he has a few submissions on his record as well. I tend to think he is not out of his depth at all in this fight. No idea if he’s been training recently, but his record, while not against great competition, seems to say he’s ready for this step up.

But what the fight comes down to, in my opinion, is how washed you think Bryan Barbarena might be. He looked slow as hell in there in his last fight against Jason Witt, getting wrestled to a majority decision loss. Weeks has proven to be very durable and barring him gassing out, I do think he has a solid chance at being able to pull this out. It’s not like Barbarena is going to do more than try to stand and trade and he’s been pretty solid at that against all but top-level competition, but he did not look great in his last fight.

My pick: Darian Weeks via decision

Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14–5 MMA, 1–2 UFC) v Manel Kape (16–6 MMA, 1–2 UFC)

A clash of two flyweights that came in with a good bit of momentum and have seen it come crashing to a screeching halt. Manel Kape was the Rizin 135 champion when he signed to the UFC and immediately got a push with a shot at Pantoja. A shot that he was not remotely ready for. He then got a returning Matteus Nicolau in his sophomore effort, a fight I thought he won, but the judge did not agree.

He finally got a win with a slick flying knee against Ode Osbourne. Zhalgas came into the UFC with wins against Ali Bagautinov, Tagir Ulanbekov, and Tyson Nam. Three very good flyweights in their own right. He then dropped his first two fights, also having a controversial loss in his debut. So, it comes down to if you have faith in Kape throwing enough to win the fight. He’s got the strength and cardio to win this. But will he commit to it? It’s impossible to say.

My pick: Manel Kape via decision

Maki Pitolo (13–8 MMA, 1–4 UFC) v Duško Todorović (10–2 MMA, 1–2 UFC)

Our first serious loser leaves town fight, we have two guys who don’t seem to have a ton of promise trying to take each other’s heads off. Now neither guy is all that good, I don’t think it’s wise to have faith in either guy. Both have a single UFC win against a guy who is no longer in the promotion and probably shouldn’t have been there, to begin with.

Both men have been knocked out before, but unless it’s Duško going to sleep here I don’t see a knockout. I hate that I even have to pick a winner for this fight because it’s such a wild toss-up, so if you’re crazy enough to place money on this, go with whoever you feel like. I am, perhaps ill-advisedly, going with the Serbian just because I think his losses are too much higher caliber fighters than Pitolo’s.

My pick: Duško Todorović via decision

Alex Morono (20–7 MMA, 9–4 UFC) v Mickey Gall (7–3 MMA, 6–3 UFC)

Alex Morono has emerged as a bit of a guy to look out for in the last 12 months. He’s 3–1 with the lone loss coming to Anthony Pettis. It looks like the Fortis MMA prospect is starting to put it all together, and I feel like he’s getting another fairly favorable matchup here. Morono has never been submitted. He has been knocked out once. I don’t believe his chin is at threat of being tested in this fight.

I will concede that Gall looked seriously improved in his most recent fight, showing some solid game on the feet. If he’s going to ever make a run in the UFC, it’s time for him to show us that he’s got it. Sadly for him, I don’t believe his gas tank will be able to hold up as well as Morono’s. I think Morono can weather any early blitzes Gall throws at him, can defend himself well enough on the ground, and win a decision with ease.

My pick: Alex Morono via decision

Brendan Allen (17–4 MMA, 5–1 UFC) v Chris Curtis (27–8 MMA, 1–0 UFC)

Props to Chris Curtis for finally getting into the UFC two weeks ago and making a big statement by knocking out highly touted prospect Phil Hawes. It’s always great to see things trending upwards for good people. I didn’t think that would happen considering Curtis is a welterweight and he was fighting up a weight class, but he showed some good power in landing that one big shot to signal his arrival.

As great as the feel-good story of Curtis is, Allen is my boy. I have yet to pick against him in any of his fights. He has been knocked out by Sean Strickland, so it’s not that Curtis has no chance here. But I’d have to imagine Allen isn’t going to be stupid enough to stand and trade, giving Curtis a better chance to land that one shot. Allen survived Punahele Soriano in his last fight. I think he can weather Curtis.

My pick: Brendan Allen via decision

Clay Guida (36–21 MMA, 16–15 UFC) v Leonardo Santos (18–4–1 MMA, 7–1–1 UFC)

On paper, it’s pretty much impossible to pick Clay Guida to win anything anymore. The man will turn 40 next week and for the first time in a while is the younger guy in the fight. That said, it’s not like he’s got a skillset all that suited to such a killer weight class anymore. But the man has more heart and toughness than almost anybody and is super game to fight anyone so here we are.

Santos just saw a six-fight win streak amassed over seven years snapped in his last fight. He has a five-inch reach advantage and a five-inch height advantage. I’d think there may be an avenue for him to submit Guida, but he hasn’t tapped anyone out in over six years. Still, I think he’s in a much better place in his career than Guida and should be able to win this one. But it being a Guida fight, who knows. The dude just has a way to have way closer fights than they seem to be on paper.

My pick: Leonardo Santos via decision

Jimmy Crute (12–2 MMA, 4–2 UFC) v Jamahal Hill (8–1 MMA, 2–1 UFC)

Another guy that I’m very high on that has stumbled recently, Jimmy Crute. I think the guy has all the tools to be a serious player at 205 but we’ve yet to see him begin to hit his prime. I get the logic of the matchup is that they’ve taken two hot prospects and are seeing which one is more ready for a push right now. I think Crute is just far ahead of Hill.

Hill does have a pretty good five inches of reach, but he does lack serious one-punch power to be too much of a threat with it. He’s shown good boxing but his lack of a ground game was exposed badly by Paul Craig in his previous fight. Crute has shown both really great power and a slick submission game, one that I think we’ll see him use yet again in this fight sooner rather than later. I have Crute tapping out Hill yet again. I don’t think enough time has passed for Hill to have patched up those holes.

My pick: Jimmy Crute via Submission in Round 1

Rafael Fiziev (10–1 MMA, 4–1 UFC) v Brad Riddell (10–1 MMA, 4–0 UFC)

The pick ’em to end all pick ‘ems. If you say you have a clear read on how this fight is going to go you’re a liar. Both guys have a lot of experience training with each other at Tiger Muay Thai, both are excellent kickboxers. This fight can go any way it wants to. I have no idea how to base this on talent alone so I look at their previous UFC fights.

Fiziev has been knocked out by the one opponent the two have in common, Magomed Mustafeav. Brad beat him by split decision. Ridell is a typically slow starter, rarely winning the first round. Fiziev tends to slow down a lot by the time the fight hits the third round. This looks like a fight for who can win the second round. And just because I tend to like Riddell’s victories more than Fiziev’s, I’m siding with the City Kickboxing product. But it ain’t going to be easy.

My pick: Brad Ridell via decision

Rob Font (19–4 MMA, 9–3 UFC) v José Aldo (30–7 MMA, 12–6 UFC)

If this were three rounds I think I’d pick Aldo. But seeing his gas tank in a few recent main events, I have some serious misgivings. Even being five rounds, this is a pick ’em yet again. If you have faith in Aldo, pick him. If you have more faith in Font, pick him. It’s as simple as that. Font won’t have anything that Aldo hasn’t seen before, but he’s on such a role and doesn’t have the miles on him.

Look, I’m siding with Font off the idea that Aldo was getting tagged up a fair bit by Chito Vera before winning round three and the fight via backpacking for a full round. I think because the fight is a full three rounds, all Font needs to do is win one of the first three, and rounds four and five are his. Aldo is going to come out real explosive at first but I think he’ll fade down the stretch. This will be a fun one.

My pick: Rob Font via decision